Analysis

Original analysis applying IR theory frameworks to current and historical events.

May 25, 2026

Why Containing Iran Is a Gift to China

U.S. coercion in MENA isn't just expensive — it's the mechanism by which power shifts to China. An overstretch analysis with the Gilpin index applied.

overstretch china iran power-transition mena kennedy gilpin mearsheimer taiwan asymmetric-drag pakistan nato eu soft-power alliances 1661 words
April 12, 2026

How Effective Would a Blockade be Against Iran?

Using Eli Heckscher's Continental System analysis to model the likely effectiveness, blowback, and evasion dynamics of a proposed US naval blockade against Iran.

iran blockade sanctions economic-warfare trump middle-east 1174 words
April 07, 2026

Introducing The Balance of Power

An IR analysis project built on extracted theory, historical data, and quantified models. What it is, what it isn't, and what's coming.

meta launch ir-theory 512 words